New updates and improvements to Foresight
Exit Waterfall and `Exit Waterfall, Extended`` sheets for a beta implementation of cashless warrants exercise. Select the option for cashless exercise in the pre-distribution cap table setup, and the model will adjust the proceeds from exercise and proceeds to warrant holders automatically. This is prebuilt for all of the options or warrants lines, although this would only be used for warrants.
Update to the Venture Investor Model:
Exit Waterfall, Extended sheet the calculations for the liquidation preferences for the second and third share class blocks (Series E and D in the default setup) referenced the incorrect lines from the predistribution cap table. Thank you Jesse for pointing it out; the fix is easy to make, and the updated model is available for Excel and Google Sheets.
Update to the Venture Capital Model, Average Cap Table:
Change to all Venture Capital Models, from 12/6/2023 to 12/18/2023:
Get Started to create new calculation of invested capital if using assets under management as the base for any period in calculating management fees. Previously the model relied on circular references to calculate fees and create a schedule of called capital, but that method sometimes failed to work reliably because of how iterative calculations work to resolve circulars. Now, if the model observes any option other than committed capital used in any period on the
Forecast sheet, it will alter the estimate of invested capital so that it does not create a circular. Creating this consisted of (a) a new subcalculation routine on the
Forecast sheet that calculates assets under management as a percentage of invested capital given the capital deployment strategy and investment strategy (expectations of writeoffs and exits), (b) modifications to the forecast of invested capital to allow the option to use circulars, now a checkbox on
Forecast sheet, (c) removal of the manual adjustment to the invested capital introduced in most model versions this month, and (d) a new method used to forecast invested capital on Get Started. The forecast of Invested Capital is still doing the same thing (committed capital - expenses - management fees + recycled capital) but now it's using a lot more subcalculations for management fees to make it work. Now, you can select management fees to use committed capital at any point in the fund life, and the model will adjust, without requiring circulars (the option to use circulars remains as a backup). In most cases the model will result in called capital = committed capital, in some cases in the Venture Investor Model if you are not recycling 100% of management fees called capital can be calculated slightly less than committed capital due to the difficulty in estimating the budget for management fees.
Get Started and
Forecast to make the model a bit smarter about handling expense overruns. Now the model will reduce distributions to handle any unbudgeted expenses, as well as call capital around recycling a bit differently. Changes to Called Capital per period, Management Fees Recycled per period, and Proceeds available for distribution (in the Waterfall) lines.
Get Started and
Forecast to build new way to forecast operational expenses. Previously model assumed operational fees were not charged to the fund in the extension period, after the initial fund operations period, if the fund was not yet exited out of all investments. Now by default it does estimate that period and use that for budgeting for operational expenses.
Currently I'm working on updating the
Portfolio Construction approach used in the Venture Investor Model to streamline the math and make it possible to handle using assets under management seemlessly, and hope to have that complete in early January.
Hiring Plan, and Revenues sheets
Snapshot sheets to switch signs for cash inflows and cash outflows. Done to increase the separation between the
Forecast sheet (calculations) and
Statements and other presentation sheets. Did not switch signs on
Breakdown sheets at this time.
Forecast sheet (higher interest rates FTW)
Revenues sheet to be added into the growth channel, and added a yes/no toggle on get started to enable that section. No change in functionality, just making the fact it exists as an option a bit easier to find by putting it on
Get Started, and separating it out of the Manual Input line in the Growth calculations on
Revenues makes it clearer how it works in the model.
Interest Income and
Statements sheet, to improve reporting capabilities for businesses.
Statements, and replacing the previous formulas that used blanks to "end" or "blank out" the forecast after the custom end of the timescale. This replaces the way the model handled timescales that were < 72 periods in the
Get Started assumption for number of periods. Now the model will no longer blank out calculations after the assumed period, but will calculate zeros, using the sheet more as a calculation page than a presentation page, a better structural approach. This will have little impact to how most people use the model, but will help those that want to model < 72 periods using the model.
The biggest changes here were extending the drivers, switching the signs, and implementing the timeline flag, while also eliminating the use of the timeline test to output blank cells past the input number of months to model on
Get Started. This involved changing > 95% of the formulas on
Statements, so it was a massive edit. That said, moving to the new base is not required, although if you stay with your base fixing the retained earnings bug is recommended.
Forecast sheet to change the default debt amortization schedule, with a change to the interest expense and principal payment lines, no impact unless using interest-only payment or balloon payment, in which case the interest expense during interest-only period is slighly larger, and the balloon payment input now offers more realistic method.
A couple specials for Black Friday this year:
Terms and conditions at Coupons.
Change to all Venture Capital Models:
Forecast sheet, adding a toggle(checkbox in Google Sheets, TRUE/FALSE in Excel) to choose whether the GP commit into the LP capital in the fund is charged management fees. By default in previous model versions the GP commit incurred management fees, by default now it does not, but there is a checkbox to toggle the treatment. Added one new line, and edited Management Fees line.
Summary sheets, to provide an extra asset account to break it out from potentially amortized long term other assets.
Forecast sheet to create a new build for Amortization of Other Assets, to match the structure for Depreciation. This was done to create a bit more flexibility in the assets and amortization accounts.
Statements sheet to change the reporting of net income and retained earnings on the balance sheet; previously this reported current month net income, and each month (or each period, if using quarterly or annual timescale) it added net income to retained earnings. Changed so that it now tracks net income over a fiscal year, and adds to retained earnings at the start of the next fiscal year. No change to the net of retained earnings and net income, just a shift between them, to balance it out differently.
Change to all Venture Capital Models:
Forecast sheet calculation of RVPI to estimate the value of carried interest. Previously RVPI was reported on a gross basis, while DPI was reported on a net basis, creating a TVPI that reflected a net DPI and gross RVPI, slightly overestimating TVPI because it did not estimate future carried interest incurred when the unrealized gains were realized. A small edit that removed the slight change in TVPI on the last period where RVPI goes to zero. Easy to replicate into any existing model by copying the new formula.
Forecast sheet to add a new Runway calculation, to calculate the number of months runway based on cash at the beginning of the month and future expenses. The model calculates runway two ways, one just a simple current cash divided by net burn that month, the second way looking at how long current cash lasts based on future cash flows, thus accounting for changes in net burn in the future. Both can be valuable in thinking about runway.
Snapshot, that is intended to help with analysis. Pick a date, and the model will report expected quarterly revenues, runway, cash in the bank at the end of the selected month, and create a table and chart showing major changes in cash over the previous 3 months and next three months from the selected date. Goal is to help with analysis, this is a first version and expect this to change over time.
Relaunch of the Standard Financial Model for Services. The release of this model leverages two key additions from the last couple updates to the Standard Model - adding seperate billing structures, and introducing bundling of new signups to start of revenues - in adding the last features necessary to make the Standard Model a good fit for services and consulting businesses.
Updates to the Standard Financial Model:
Get Started and
Revenues sheets, added new option for % billed upfront. Most cases it will be 100%, but in some cases (services, consulting, some enterprise contracts) there is a need for contracts to be paid at multiple times, on a non-every month or all billed upfront option. This implements a billing option where you can select to bill a % upfront in first month of contract, and the remainder at the end of the contract (on the last month of the contract)
Updates to the Standard Financial Model:
Revenues sheet to create a new "bundling" feature. line 114 calculates the conversions after the conversion lag, line 115 is a bundling input, line 116 calculates conversions after bundling. some businesses may make sales over time, but when the sales start may not be the same period, but may bundle them together into groups. an example is in education, where you often sign up users but don't start charging them until school is in session, for example. this input is designed to say "yes" or "no" using a "1" or "0", respectively, to say whether the conversions should flow through (a "1") or be bundled and held until the next event ("0" until the period for them to flow through into the next "1"). Kind of specific for certain businesses; if you don't understand it, then it doesn't apply to you :)
Update to the Venture Capital Model, Annual Forecast, Detailed Investment Strategy, adding in prebuilt scenario analysis. Video with how to think about scenario analysis and how to use it is linked at the product page and inside the model, and below.
Forecast sheet row 7, so that it corrects the fiscal year for the
Summary sheet when the calendar year-end is not the same as the fiscal year-end. Previously, the
Summary sheet would sum up the years still using calendar years rather than fiscal years, a simple change to the formula on row 7 updates this.
Hiring Plan so it uses the timescale from
Forecast sheet, instead of recalculating the timescale. All sheets link to the timescale from
Forecast so that they are all consistent, previously this one was independent but now it's tied to the
Get Started for the revenue calculations on
Revenues sheet so that the input for the starting number of revenue units is exposed on
Get Started. No change in model functionality, just a slight addition to make it clearer where to make that input.
New addition to product pages, adding category groupings (all venture capital models and all startup models) to reviews and ratings. Previously the ratings and reviews reported the ratings and reviews for each product and all products, now I've added a third section (in the middle of the ratings options) that displays the category-specific ratings and reviews for that product's category.
Created a Changelog (this page!) to track updates to products, classes, and offerings from Foresight. This page will highlight improvements to the models by surfacing the notes in each model's Changelog to the website, as well as broader updates about the company.
Hosted a free, live workshop on modeling anti-dilution and their impact on cap tables. Understanding how down rounds impact dilution is an important area for companies in today's climate, I covered the theory and practice in modeling anti-dilution protection, with practical examples for you to use. Download the slides and spreadsheet here.
For more on modeling cap tables, I teach the Cap Table and Exit Waterfall Masterclass, a four session course that dives deeper into the topic.
New post covering How to Model Hardware Businesses using the Standard Financial Model.
Exit Waterfall, introduced a new model settings at the top, to set the formula structure in a few situations. Basically, some aspects of the
Exit Waterfall create circulars that can be difficult for Excel and Google Sheets to calculate correctly (yes, spreadsheet programs have limitations, especially when it comes to circular references). By default, the model uses simpler formulas unless the more advanced options are required, for example for pari-passu or for down rounds (introduced in the previous version), in which cases the model turns on the more complicated formulas. Hopefully this makes it better for a wider range of people to use without issue, and still keeps the more advanced functionality for those that need it.
Exit Waterfall, changed the liquidation preference calculation for each share class to use the proceeds per share to common instead of the residual per share from the section above. The previous method did not work as well in conditions where the liquidation price per share decreased in future rounds. This method does make the calculations even more circular, but more robust for that situation.
Cap Table sheet.
More at Modeling Anti-Dilution
This was a webinar with Tactyc on how to use the forecast you created for fundraising your venture fund to actively manage your investing activity.
Tactyc is a platform for forecasting and scenario planning platform for venture capitalists. The software enables funds to construct, manage and forecast venture portfolios and empowers GPs to be more data-driven in capital and reserve allocations. Learn more at Tactyc.
Revenues build (with additional assumptions on
Get Started) to allow for a % of new revenue units to select two different churn / repeat cycles with separate revenue assumptions. This allows you to segment new customers/users/subscribers/clients into two separate bases, allowing you to assume annual/monthly billing, for example.
Statements sheet to include previous period, so that the formulas are change per period + previous period (Thank you to user for finding this; while the Starter Model shares the same build for the
Statements, this was only in the Standard Model).
Forecast sheet to include a new input line for "Changes in Accounts Receivable", and edited the accounts receivable calc to use that amount if used in the model. What this does is make it easier to use the actual changes in accounts receivable in the model; previously you had to compute cash collected to back into the change in accounts receivable, now it will do it directly using the change in AR you calculate from your actual balance sheet